Famous Norwegian economist Ole Gjølberg is currently actively looking for partners in Ukraine for business and educational cooperation. He is a professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and now a visiting professor at King Danylo University. In an exclusive interview for King Danylo University, he discusses his analysis of the Russian economy, Norwegians' attitudes toward Ukraine, and the prospects for Norwegian-Ukrainian economic relations.
– You came to King Danylo University to give a lecture to students about the possible collapse of the Russian economy. The topic sounds quite optimistic for Ukrainians, because if something bad happens in Russia, it is good for Ukraine. But is it possible to predict when this collapse will happen?
I cannot say, because I don't know what people in Russia think. If this had been in a democratic country, there would have been a revolution a long time ago. So, the Russian people seem to accept a lot, which is very difficult, especially for a Norwegian, to understand. We would not have accepted losing so much money in the stock market, experiencing inflation, or seeing interest rates skyrocketing. I haven't been to Russia for many years, and the people from Russia I talked to are no longer in Russia.
Maybe in the countryside, poor people can take anything in Russia. But I don't understand why the educated middle class in the cities accepts this. They should have a nice life, but now it's getting harder and harder. And when the house of cards collapses, I don't know, but it's getting tougher and tougher. Even Putin has now accepted that there may be some problems. The lady who is the chief of the Bank of Russia has also said things in that direction. Some leading economists, loyalists of Putin, have also indicated that things are heading towards perhaps a recession. So, no, I don't know, but I would not be surprised if something happens.
– Perhaps you have analyzed how Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries are affecting the Russian economy?
You are hitting Russia where it is most vulnerable – the oil and gas sector. That's a very efficient strategy, because it's a major source of income for Russia. Second, at least in Western countries, people would be very upset if they had to queue at gas stations or if gas became very expensive. I'm jokingly saying that maybe they could start fueling cars with vodka if gas prices become too high. So, I think this is a very good strategy, and I would like to see more of it. Hitting important refineries really hurts. And the sanctions hurt, no doubt about that. They can try to find ways around it by exporting to China and India, but that's a very long way around.
– If the Russian economy collapses, what consequences will this have for the entire world?
I like to believe that there are rational people in Russia saying: “Why are we wasting so much money and resources on a war? We could use these resources to improve life for ourselves and for society.” So, I think there may be hope that the war can stop due to economic collapse or financial meltdown. It can happen. But again, maybe that's wishful thinking. I don't know how much Russians can endure. Russia has a long tradition of accepting almost everything. But now you have the internet, Russians have been traveling, and they can see what is happening. Look at Poland. I was there as a student in the 1970s. It was really a poor country compared to the West. I visited Poland again recently. It's like Germany or Scandinavia – such fantastic development. When you get a taste of freedom and welfare, you will not accept being run over by autocrats and dictators.
– Norway is a big friend of Ukraine and helps us a lot. In what areas do you see potential for developing partnership relations between Norway and Ukraine?
Well, in a lot of businesses. That's why I'm here, actually, to discuss possible joint business ventures between start-ups in Ukraine and Norwegian companies. You sit on large gas resources in the Black Sea. Norway sits on top technology for developing gas offshore, not on land, but offshore. When Ukraine becomes free and the war ends, that may be one area of cooperation. IT technology could be another joint venture, as well as boat building. There's a lot of competence when it comes to drones – you are probably much better than we are now. There's a whole range of possibilities once the war is over.
– But unfortunately, not now.
Currently, collaboration is mainly in the military field. We are producing advanced anti-air defense NASAMS in Norway.
Ukraine would be a very interesting tourist destination, but most people in Norway today hesitate to go. I try to tell them that it's not dangerous, but that's hard to believe. I've been here many times, and they ask: “Oh, how did you get there?” I say the most dangerous thing is driving through Poland because of the traffic.
University collaboration can also be developed today, because that can be done online and on a private individual basis. Norway has allocated quite a significant amount of money for university collaboration with Ukraine. Then it's a question of finding partners. That's one of the reasons why I'm here.
– Do you already have partners in Ukraine, or is this the first step?
Yes and no. I had a few meetings with the Lviv Business School, but nothing materialized. When I met Maksym Karpash in Oslo at a dinner with the Ukrainian ambassador, I complained about this. He said: “Well, you should come to Ivano-Frankivsk. It's much easier.” So, here I am.
– What kind of partnership are you thinking about?
I think the easiest partnership would be to have a joint master's teaching program. Many of my colleagues would like to come to teach. Of course, we don't speak Ukrainian, but your students understand English. Possibly, research partnerships could also be developed if we have good research ideas that both the Ukrainian side and our side would be interested in.
– Before the full-scale invasion, did your country think about collaboration with Ukraine?
We did not know much about Ukraine. I visited Ukraine for private reasons 10 years ago, just after the 2014 revolution. I went down to Dnipropetrovsk, now Dnipro.
We had heard of some very good atheletes, like the Klitschko brothers, Sergej Bubka. Apart from that, Ukraine seemed quite far away. We had also heard about many Ukrainian lorry drivers. Many worked as chauffeurs because they were paid very little. But now, everybody in Norway is interested in Ukraine.
– What do most Norwegians think about the war? Aren't they worried that it could spread to the rest of Europe?
No, I don't think Norwegians are very worried about the war reaching Norway. That's too incredible, even though we have a 200 km border with Russia. The worry is more about Europe surrendering, which would create an even larger dictatorship next door. The hardship you are going through is seen on TV all the time, even though sometimes it's too much to understand. We don't believe Russia will attack Norway, but we see Russia interfering in cyberspace and daily life, spreading misinformation on social media.
– So the hybrid war is ongoing…
Yes, and more people are becoming aware of that. We also accepted that we were wrong to think the Cold War was finally over and that we were all friends. So now we are increasing our military budgets to a much larger extent than previously thought necessary. But there's no real fear in Norway for that. We're so far away. Ukraine can keep Russia occupied. Norway would be very hard to attack in a conventional sense, but they could attack our electricity grid. We are almost 100% electrified: heating, everything uses electricity in Norway. That is a real danger, and people understand it could happen. We live in a sort of paradise compared to what you are experiencing in the war. People here don't have to fear anything at night. I've been to Kyiv when the bombing was heavy. It's impossible for people in Norway to understand what it's like to go down into a shelter.
– You're also volunteering for Ukraine, right?
Yes, I'm volunteering in an organization called Ukrainian Freedom Convoys. We collect money to buy cars for the front. Old cars, so we buy them very cheaply – the average price is around $3,000. I've been here with four cars, and altogether we've sent almost 400 cars over the last year and a half.
I also run a pub that has become a Ukrainian support hub. We collect money at the pub, auction Ukrainian vodka and wine to buy cars. We also hold online meetings with soldiers on the front line. The pub has sent two cars with the name of the pub on the doors. This is our small contribution. I’m interested in people and seeing things as well.
The pub is very near a Norwegian Air Force Base, so many guests are former pilots. One of them, an F-16 pilot, has been to Kyiv. He was actually the first F-16 instructor in Norway. He said he could hear his old workhorse in the skies over Kyiv.
– And finally, what advice would you give to Ukrainian students and young scientists to help them achieve success?
Stay strong and keep studying. One day, things will get better. Don't give in. I would strongly encourage Ukrainian youngsters to study and stay in Ukraine. My colleagues say, “Why don't you just take the Ukrainian students to Norway?” And I say, no, we go to Ukraine to show our face. When the war is ongoing, we come here as much as possible.
